In April, I wrote that there were worring signs for Lake Lanier water levels.

Two months on and the news from Lake Lanier is mixed.

The lake entered the spring several feet lower than in 2011 and 2010, although better than the really bad drought years that preceded it.

We’ve dropped one foot in the last two months and the lake is now just over 6 feet below full pool.

We now enter the time of year when lake levels often start to drop more quickly. Here’s a recap of June to November in recent years:

• 2011: Down 9 feet
• 2010: Down 3 feet
• 2009: Up 8 feet
• 2008: Down 5 feet (although the lake was already a long way down)
• 2007: Down 12 feet

So, on average, the lake drops over 4 feet between now and November. If Lanier drops that far, the lake will be down 10 feet going into the winter.

However, let’s note two things:

1. A drop of another 4 feet will curtail activity on the lake, but it will actually be much better than in the recent drought years.
2. 4 feet is the average, but there have been some pretty wild swings lately. At the extremes, the lake could rise 8 feet or drop 12 feet.